True Confession time- I was a young reader of all things science fiction. SciFi giants Issac Asimov, Ray Bradbury, and my favorite Robert A. Heinlein transported me through space and time to faraway galaxies. We moved frequently for my dad’s work. So, I would gauge each new place by the breadth and depth of its’ science fiction section in the local library. I was disappointed more often than elated.
Many tools today such as solar panels, Wi-fi, virtual work & gaming were all predicted in Science Fiction writings. Heinlein, a US Naval Academy graduate in engineering, suggested the cell phone 40 years before Motorola built the first one. Science fiction fans who were berated for reading this “stuff” are enjoying the 21st century immensely. It’s no longer science fiction, it’s just science. In the spirit of the “futuristic” outlook of sci-fi, let me offer some predictions backed up by facts.
We are in the middle of a massive higher education re-set. In a May 7 article in the Boston Business Journal, Harvard University announced it will end its’ fiscal year $450 million in debt. While that only represents 5% of their discretionary endowment, it is a wake-up call. Harvard’s executive vice president Katie Lapp indicated that furloughs and loss of positions will likely occur very soon. In the same vein, the University of Wisconsin System President Ray Cross is warning system campuses to prioritize courses, eliminate redundancy, and expect layoffs and financial belt-tightening not seen in decades. The UW system is expecting to lose $170 million for the spring semester alone according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
Across the country, higher education’s established processes have been blown up by the COVID-19 pandemic. They don’t know how many students will show up this August. They don’t know if their big money maker sports programs will sell any tickets. But they do know their budgets will be decimated by the economic fallout from the pandemic. It is the Perfect Storm. In the spirit of the “futuristic” outlook of sci-fi, here are some predictions based on current realities.
BACK TO BASICS
My Prediction: College and University is changing permanently right before our eyes. You must stay up to date to help your student make great decisions.
The pandemic is NOT the only problem facing higher education. Loss of revenues this spring, questionable sports revenues this fall and winter, and a skimpy freshman class will devastate budgets. And there is not enough money in state or federal coffers to bail them out. Therefore, every program, major, course, and college credit will be under analysis and review in the next 18 months. Administrators will have to phase out under-performing majors, eliminate redundant offerings in the system, and cut programs that don’t break even. The impact on the staff, instructors, graduate students, and professors is unclear but absolute. As hard decisions about classes and courses are made, there will be furloughs and non-renewal of teaching contracts in the foreseeable future. Tenured professors will see changes to teaching loads, research, and everything as it used to be.
To add to the misery, some smaller institutions without the resources of the taxpayer-supported state schools may not survive the next two years. Many have been underfunded for decades, surviving from incoming class to incoming class. In the last blog, The Year of the Rat, I indicated 1 in 8 students are telling research firms they may not go to in-person college this fall. And these are the ones who put down a deposit. Combined with the famous “summer melt”, the 2024 class could be 20% smaller than normal. Major contributing factors to this prediction include loss of jobs, closed businesses, and pandemic related concerns about sending your student back to the college mixing bowl.
VIRTUAL LEARNING
My Prediction: Online Learning is not an anomaly and will become an integral part of the higher education landscape beginning NOW.
Kudos to the colleges and universities who transitioned rapidly to online learning this spring on very short notice. That said, stop trying to go back to the way it was. The genie is out of the bottle. Resistance to online or distance learning is strong with residential colleges and universities. “Making do” with the rush to online classes this spring during the pandemic is being packaged as an “anomaly.” It is more like the tip of the sword.
Universities are looking at breaking up huge introductory courses into smaller classes to reduce pandemic resurgence. What better way than to social distance through technology delivered lectures? The ability to adapt to this and WIN with your customer, your student, is a critical skill required of all instructors going forward. Otherwise, your customer will turn to places that already deliver in this format at a more competitive price.
LEVERAGE IS YOUR NEW SUPERPOWER
My Prediction: The college/university system is under huge financial stress everywhere. YOU have unprecedented influence in admissions, financial aid, and campus upgrades for your student.
The Perfect Storm will change higher ed significantly in the next 24-36 months While they are righting their ships, they still need students. As I say in my book, you should always negotiate for what you want.
Every student and parent should be in an ongoing conversation about the impacts of almost daily changes in higher education. In my Real-life Game of Thrones blog, I provided ideas for freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Parents of incoming freshmen have the hardest decision of all; to send or keep their students at home, engage in distance learning, or enter local community college. Do you map out a plan and ask for a Gap Year? Do you go to your original idea, or change it completely? For even more information and options, check out my book, ENOUGH! The College Cost Crisis
Regardless of your final direction, you are in the middle of one of the largest upheavals in how higher education will be delivered, received, and processed. Unprecedented times requires a laser focus on what is best for your student and your family. Take the time to do it right.
Until next time,
All my best,
Bonnie Burkett
