A Fractured Fairy Tale & Forbes Magazine
Once Upon a Time, there was a lovely city with five colleges and universities; three small, private colleges, one large university plus one smaller university. These included two HBCU institutions of higher learning. All told, these schools bring 25,000+ students to town every fall, representing 10% of the city’s population and millions of dollars in economic impact.
This year is different. The cracks in the facades of higher education are showing, revealing difficulties that could lead to their closure. Let’s look at our three private colleges. School A is appealing revocation of their accreditation. School B, having more debt than endowment, put their president on sabbatical and hired a replacement president in under 10 days. School C’s enrollment levels are shrinking while their graduation rate after SIX years of school is 33% lower than the national average. All have announced furloughs, and many have eliminated adjunct faculty positions for the fall. The slow-motion disaster is starting.
Our local state-supported larger universities are both re-opening with a blend of in-person and online. I recently spoke to an incoming freshman at a local university who was working at a retail store I visited. She is going to attend one of the universities but will be living at home. That is one less student in the dormitory. That is a loss of $10-12,000 in revenue with just ONE student. There will be many more, which, will impact programs, majors, staff, and sports. They may resist longer, but their budget deficits are looming, and furloughs and staff cuts are just over the horizon.
I predicted this upheaval in June calling it a perfect storm. Now it looks more like a tsunami. In a tsunami, the water recedes first, revealing everything. In academia, this ” reveal” includes bloated administrations, reliance on 20th-century teaching techniques, and an amazing inability to adapt. The failure to invest in online programming & training their instructors in online teaching will be catastrophic to all schools. As the water recedes, off the beach, it becomes a wall of water that crashes down on the old systems, processes, and programs. There is no happily ever after ending here. Nor am I the only one sounding the alarm.
On July 21, 2020, Forbes Magazine online ran an article by Stephen McBride titled, “ Why College Is Never Coming Back. Check out a few excerpts from the article.
“Here’s some great news: one of America’s most broken industries is finally being exposed as a sham. And make no mistake, the end of college as we know it is a great thing… College costs have ballooned beyond all reason… As recently as 1980 you could get a four-year bachelor’s degree at a public school for less than $10,000. These days it’ll cost you $40,000 at a minimum, $140,000 for a private school, or well over $250,000 for a top school…
Mark my words: coronavirus will be remembered for transforming college forever. New data shows colleges reopening “online-only”…have slashed costs by $9,000, on average.
With learning shifting onto the internet, there’s nothing stopping nimble disruptors from offering real college degrees at much cheaper prices.
Think of them (the disruptors) as the new department stores. You know how unspecialized, middle of the road retailers like Macy’s and Sears are dying off? Nimble online schools will do to traditional colleges what Amazon did to department stores.”
Friends- Expect those disruptors to begin now. Mergers of traditional universities with for-profits can never happen? Check out the sudden move at the University of Arizona who just purchased Ashford University ( a for-profit with an interesting back story ) and will re-constitute as the University of Arizona Global for the online crowd. Don’t expect our employees, the faculty, to learn 21st-century technology to teach. Just buy an online school of questionable provenance This is a survival move. Expect the impossible and the improbable. I’ll try to keep up you apprised of the most interesting stories.
In the meantime, don’t let coronavirus school at home, in private school, or in public school consume you. Make room for big changes in Higher Education, including the possibility of lowering online costs due to a sudden massive fight for the student dollar.
A. Stay up to date if your student is in or entering high school. There are going to many options for your family. Look for them. Don’t let “keeping up with the Jones” dictate your student’s college education options. Your work and research could result in the best program AND terrific savings.
B. Be very strategic with your student’s future plans. You can’t afford, nor can they, to treat higher education as a partying right of passage. Be relentless working with your high school student in self-review, discovery, and directing them towards an education that fits their interests and gifts. My book, ENOUGH! The College Cost Crisis offers several chapters on just that process, as well as hard truths about the college system today.
C. Stay open to alternative paths. Whether it is a gap year, CLEP, military, or community college, there are many other ways to deal with higher education right now & in the next couple of years.
Stay tuned- stay involved- stay informed. It could be worth tens of thousands of dollars to your family. Next week, let me fill your virtual backpack with great resources!
Until next time,
All my best,
Bonnie Burkett
