It ALL Comes Down to Trust...OOPS!

***** EXTRA! EXTRA!! Predictions come true! ***** I didn’t think it would happen THIS fast, but it did. One week after some students arrived at our flagship campus, they are going all online because they have over 250 STUDENTS test positive for COVID-19. So now you have round two with online college and paying full boat tuition. It makes you stop and think, right? Right. Keep thinking about your options as you digest these statistics.

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My Facebook feed has been filled with pix of returning students in their new dorm rooms & new students with family photo-ops. Finally, they are off to college! Earlier this summer, I mentioned the term “yield rate equivalent” which is fancy speak for what percentage of the students who paid a deposit to attend a college show up. It has been all the admissions departments have worried about all summer long. Why? Because their very paychecks depend on it!

I predicted this was going to be a bad year for colleges dependent on student tuition. And, I got it wrong. I wasn’t even close to how bad it is. I'm sharing the devastating July survey results from the college branding/marketing agency Simpson Scarborough, published August 11, 2020. They surveyed 927 incoming freshmen and 905 returning students. And, these students had committed a deposit for the fall semester. While not a huge sampling number, it is high enough to glean the overriding issues from our students’ point of view. If you want to read the whole survey, you can find it at www.info.simpsonscarborough.com.

DATA POINT #1 - Almost 40% of both new and returning students were likely or highly likely not to attend any four-year college this fall. Diving deeper, almost 50% of students attending a private school are likely or highly likely to change their minds vs 32% at public schools. Even vaunted Harvard has announced last week that 20% of freshmen were deferring their enrollment.

Analysis Private colleges with modest endowments who depend on the semester-by-semester tuition cash flow to run their schools will be deep in a financial hole this fall. For many, it could mean the end of the road by next spring. If your student is in the 80% of all college students/customers who attend public universities, these numbers may take longer to devastate the system. Still, you can expect position cuts, majors dropped, and other belt-tightening measures.

DATA POINT#2 - Students’ perceptions of the quality and frequency of communication from their institutions have dropped from good to not so good. As ANY marketing agency preaches, it is ALL about communication.

Analysis Let's give the schools a B for communications efforts in the scramble this spring. As the summer dragged on and the virus did not disappear, the silence from most, or “we’re working on it” answers were not enough for their students/customers. First, it was going to be all in person; next, hybrid classes, and finally after less than one week, it's all online. This is the absolute opposite of what their students were seeking, as you will see in the forthcoming chart below.

DATA POINT #3 - Students have more trust in their institutions if they are NOT re-opening to full in-person instruction than if they are. First-time students are particularly comfortable with on-line only.

Analysis Do you see the shift here? The class of 2024 and beyond is already primed for an online college education. That number will continue to increase as higher education is forced to accommodate during this pandemic. How soon will the student/customers decide to do college in a less costly manner? Not long at all.

DATA POINT #4 - Here is the “what I’d like to experience” responses. Check out these numbers.

Education Option Returning Student New Students

Campus Hybrid 41% 30%

Stay home + online 31% 39%

Campus in-person 17% 17%

Campus on-line 9% 13%

Analysis Does this look like the “majority” of students wanted to return to campus in person? Only 17% gave that answer. Even fewer wanted to be on campus and online. So why did most of the schools declare they were fully open, then shut down to online-only? If your answer is getting tuition and the room & board, you go to the head of my class. Now they are there, how do the students feel about their safety and their fellow student's behaviors? Read the headlines AND the next data point.

DATA POINT #5 - When asked if they agree with the following statement, “I trust my college/university to take the necessary precautions to keep students safe”, incoming freshmen scored higher than returning students! Sure they did. They haven't lived there. But on the most important question about their fellow students, the answer is chilling. Only 7% of returning students strongly agree they trust their fellow students to follow guidelines, and 66% don’t feel safe living in residence halls. Finally, almost 3 in 4 students are worried they will contract the Covid-19 virus.

Analysis There is a lot of engagement on any campus that will not be 6 feet apart and involve wearing masks. And, where is your safe place? I take my mask off in my car and my home. Exactly where on a college campus can a student take their mask off and feel relaxed and safe right now? Or in the dead of winter….

Closing Commentary- My take is very simple. All Higher Ed is in a panic. They need the cash flow, like any foundering business. Expect layoffs, furloughs, & shrinking everything. This will culminate in a simple question asked around a lot of Thanksgiving and Christmas dinner tables this year; is this the best way to do college for me?

I hope everyone will take a long hard look at their options. Those options are deeply detailed in Chapter 14 of my book, ENOUGH! The College Cost Crisis. While your student schlep their stuff back home, pick up a copy on Amazon for yourself. Then see if there is another, less expensive way to do all this.

Next week, let’s peek over the edge to see the devastating impact excessive student loans are having on FAMILIES.

Until next time,

All my best,

Bonnie Burkett

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